In just the past four days, the cherry blossom buds at the Tidal Basin have jumped through the first two stages in their bloom process, helped along by abnormally mild weather. They’re well on pace for an early peak bloom between March 19 and 26, but they could also become vulnerable to potential cold weather around that time.
The National Park Service announced that the bloom process had reached Stage 2, or “florets visible,” on Tuesday morning, meaning little flowers had formed within green buds. The buds first emerged Saturday, marking Stage 1, the Park Service said.
March 5 marks the third-earliest Stage 2 date in the past two decades and is about 10 days ahead of average. Stage 2 was only reached earlier last year and in 2017 (on March 1), and in 2020 (on March 3). The blooms peaked between March 20 and 25 those years.
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This year, much as in 2023, 2020 and 2017, mild weather since late February has really pushed the buds along. Since Feb. 22, it’s been warmer than normal on all but two days. Highs have mostly been in the 50s and 60s, and the last freeze occurred on Feb. 25.
Because of this mild weather and the forecast for more, both the Capital Weather Gang and the Park Service have projected earlier-than-normal peak blooms. Our predicted peak bloom is between March 19 and 23, while the Park Service is calling for March 23 to 26. These dates are four to 11 days before the average peak bloom of March 30 over the past 30 years but mostly coincide with the National Cherry Blossom Festival, which runs from March 20 to April 14 this year.
Whether our forecast or the Park Service’s is more accurate will depend on weather in the coming weeks.
For at least the next seven to 10 days, temperatures will generally be warmer than average — which should help the buds continue to advance through their stages. Importantly, temperatures are projected to mostly remain above freezing at night, which will speed up the bloom process. However, a lack of sunshine this week may slow things down a little — as will some chillier weather Saturday through Monday.
Next week, there’s a strong signal for another spell of unseasonably mild weather, with highs flirting with 70 degrees. It’s probable that the buds will have moved through at least Stage 3, or “extension of florets,” by March 15. It’s even possible they’ll reach Stage 4, or “peduncle elongation,” which is when the stalks bearing the buds extend and flowers are about to burst out.
The wild card is what happens with the weather during the third week of March.
There are signs of a colder pattern arriving between March 15 and 20. This could suddenly slow the bloom process.
In a worst-case scenario, the buds could advance to Stage 4 or even Stage 5, known as “puffy blossoms,” when the buds begin to burst, before the cold arrives, making them vulnerable to freezing temperatures. This happened in mid-March 2017, when the buds reached Stage 4 and were badly damaged by snow and temperatures that plunged into the 20s.
It’s too soon to know how intense any cold weather around March 20 might be and how much it might delay peak bloom (if it hasn’t already happened by then).
Peak bloom is defined as when 70 percent of the cherry trees’ buds are flowering. Once flowering occurs, the blossoms can remain on the cherry trees for another week or so if it’s warm and winds are light. But in some years, petals fall off more rapidly because of wind, rain or frost.
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